Testimony of Industry Economist – David Ozgo
Industry Economist Testifies Under Oath on Reliability of Nielsen Data and Sudden Market Reversal
(Court Hearing Transcript – February 9, 2026)
The former chief economist for over 20 years of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States testified under oath regarding the reliability of Nielsen data and the significance of recent performance trends for Uncle Nearest.
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Veteran Industry Economist Establishes Credibility and Data Expertise
The witness testified that he served more than two decades as chief economist and senior vice president at the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, where he analyzed industry trends and worked extensively with multiple data sources.
He explained that his work included developing widely used industry datasets and regularly evaluating both shipment data and retail performance metrics across the spirits market.
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Testimony Confirms Nielsen Data as Widely Trusted Industry Standard
The witness testified that Nielsen data is considered highly reliable within the spirits industry and is widely used by major companies for decision-making and planning.
He explained that although Nielsen does not capture the entire market, its coverage is sufficiently broad to provide accurate trend analysis, particularly when viewed over time.
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Nielsen Data Covers a Significant Portion of the Market and Tracks Trends Consistently
The testimony established that Nielsen data reflects a substantial portion of retail sales and serves as a reliable proxy for overall market trends, even without full market coverage.
The witness stated that, based on his experience comparing Nielsen data with complete shipment datasets, the directional trends are consistently aligned and dependable.
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Testimony Rejects Claim That Nielsen Data Is Not Applicable to Uncle Nearest
The witness testified that Nielsen data is applicable to Uncle Nearest because it operates as a national brand with distribution across all 50 states and significant sales volume.
He distinguished the company from smaller local or regional independent brands, explaining that brands with national reach are well represented in Nielsen datasets.
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Data Shows Dramatic and Atypical Reversal in Performance
The witness testified that Uncle Nearest was outperforming the broader market by approximately ten points through mid-2025, followed by a reversal to underperformance of similar magnitude beginning in late 2025.
He described this shift as a sharp and unusual change that occurred over a short period, which would not typically occur under normal market conditions.
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Testimony Attributes Performance Shift to Change in Circumstances, Not Market Conditions
The witness testified that general market headwinds affecting the spirits industry would not explain a reversal in performance relative to the broader market.
He stated that such a change indicates that a specific change in circumstances occurred, rather than a uniform decline across the category.
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Cross-Examination Focuses on Scope of Nielsen Data and Comparable Situations
During cross-examination, counsel for the lender and Receiver questioned the scope of Nielsen data, including its coverage of independent retailers and total market share.
The witness acknowledged limitations in coverage but maintained that trends observed in larger retail channels remain consistent with broader market behavior. He also testified that, in prior instances where brands were involved in litigation, such as Patron Tequila, he did not recall a comparable downward trend and observed that operations typically continued without disruption despite legal disputes.
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Witness Maintains Confidence in Data Despite Limitations
The witness testified that even with partial market coverage, Nielsen data remains a reliable indicator of trends, particularly for large national brands.
He explained that successful products in smaller channels are typically adopted by larger retailers, reinforcing the consistency of observed trends across the market.
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Testimony Reinforces That Performance Decline Is Not Typical Industry Pattern
The witness testified that while brands may experience gradual declines, the rapid shift observed in this case is not consistent with normal market dynamics.
He further stated that, absent a change in circumstances, there is no reason the brand’s prior outperformance relative to the market would have reversed so quickly.